Resolution 128/NQ-CP on safe, flexible adaptation and effective control of the Covid-19 pandemic and Resolution 43/QH15 on fiscal and monetary policy support for the Socio-Economic Development and Recovery Program contributed significantly to successes in 2022. The lesson and experience about preparations in advance need to be continued to apply to achieve the goals set out for 2023.
Recovery amid difficulties
In 2021, the Government made a strategic shift with unprecedented decisions and measures, typically Resolution 128/NQ-CP, that have turned the situation around. In April 2021, the economy recovered, and GDP reached 5.22 percent.
The economy posted a V-shaped recovery. This recovery model showed that the resilience of the economy was fairly positive. As long as there were specific conditions for economic activities to return, they would immediately contribute to the economic growth, Mr. Tran Quoc Phuong, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment, recalled.
In the third quarter of 2022, Vietnam's GDP growth rebounded to 13.7 percent compared to the same period in 2021, while the world entered a new crisis and recession with high inflation.
"Vietnam has again emerged as a bright star in the sky of global economic growth," said Prof.-Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, Member of the National Assembly’s Finance and Budget Committee.
Vietnam's economic growth increased gradually over the quarters. The macro indicators of supply, demand, labor market, and business sector all improved. Meanwhile, the world economy showed an extremely unstable state, in which inflation escalated, and the economic slowdown worsened.
Promoting internal strength, removing bottlenecks
Mr. Nguyen Quang Huan, a Member of the 15th NA of Binh Duong Province, said that the timely introduction of Resolution 43/QH15 and the opportune issuance of Resolution 128/NQ-CP created momentum for success in 2022. The lesson and experience about preparations in advance need to be continued to apply to achieve the goals in 2023.
In 2023, despite facing many difficulties because the economy has a large openness, with experience and lessons of policy-making and administration in the past three years, many experts believe that Vietnam will have the right orientation and good policy choice. Vietnam's economy will continue to recover from the implementation of the 2022-2023 Socio-Economic Development and Recovery Program. "In an optimistic forecast, economic growth can reach 6.5-6.7 percent in the condition that the recovery process happens more favorably, and the impacts from the international context are not significant," Dr. Tran Toan Thang, National Center for Socio-economic Information and Forecast, said.
According to Nguyen Minh Cuong, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Vietnam's economic outlook in 2023 greatly depends on global economic developments. However, for the economy to recover steadily and grow sustainably, Vietnam needs to solve the internal bottlenecks immediately. That is creating favorable conditions for businesses to develop, taking stronger measures to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital, and strengthening social security measures.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF):
In the context of the global economic slowdown, Vietnam is still a bright spot in the gray picture, with a high growth rate. The economy is open and dynamic. The continuance of promoting reform and transformation to a green growth model will bring a new driving force to Vietnam's economy.
Ramla Khalidi, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Resident Representative in Vietnam:
Vietnam's economic outlook is still quite bright in 2023. Domestic risks are from the monetary, bond, and real estate markets. Therefore, policymakers need to be vigilant to make timely adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies.
Andrew Jeffries, Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam:
With a solid macro foundation, political stability, a strong recovery of economic sectors, and an extremely active business community, we are confident that Vietnam will achieve its goal of economic growth of 6.5 percent in 2023.