Noticeably, VEPR has forecasted three growth scenarios for Vietnam's economy in 2022
Forecasting Vietnam's economy in 2022, VEPR assessed that the economy is in recovery but will continue to face many difficulties and obstacles.
The first is the risk from the pandemic - the risk of the emergence of new virus strains, although recent developments indicate an improvement in global disease control.
Secondly, inflation pressure and production costs are increasing strongly.
The third is the risk from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the direct impacts are not too great because bilateral trade and investment relations between these two countries with Vietnam are quite small, the indirect impacts are extremely huge.
Fourth is the slowdown of the global economy and important partners of Vietnam, especially China, in the context that this country continues its "Zero Covid" policy with strict pandemic control measures that can cause stress to the economy, and affect the supply chains, thereby affecting Vietnam's economy.
Fifth, the phase difference in Vietnam's economic stimulus policies compared with the global trend might reduce the effectiveness of the economic stimulus policies that Vietnam is expecting.
The VEPR has recently introduced GDP growth scenarios in 2022, with the growth rate at 5.7 percent in the base scenario and 6.2 percent in the positive one. However, if the context is negative, VEPR forecasts that the GDP growth will decrease to 5.2 percent.
The research team recommended that, in the context that the pandemic might still develop complicatedly, priority should be given to proactively controlling the pandemic, minimizing negative impacts, and protecting and supporting economic recovery.
At the same time, it is essential to closely monitor, have a full assessment, and take timely measures to respond to the problem of import and inflation, the influence of the Chinese economy with its Zero Covid policy, the Russia-Ukraine war escalation, and other possible risks.
Especially, it is necessary to speed up the implementation of solutions for economic recovery and development, continue to deploy social security solutions and policies on tax and fee exemption and reduction which are already in the socio-economic recovery program 2022-2023; accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital, effectively harmonize public investment capital from the recovery program and the medium-term public investment plan.
Another issue that should be noted is speeding up the implementation of measures to reduce interest rates and support interest rates. However, it needs to be closely attached to strict supervision and control of bad debts.