According to the SBV, by mid-September, the whole economy's credit increased by 10.47 percent compared to the end of 2021 and 17.19 percent over the same period in 2021. Regarding credit management, Mr. Dao Minh Tu, Standing Deputy Governor of the SBV, said that based on the 2022 economic growth target of about 6-6.5 percent and inflation of about 4 percent set by the National Assembly, the Government and the SBV orient the credit growth in 2022 at about 14 percent, with adjustments in accordance with developments and actual situations.
Accordingly, credit is managed to actively support economic recovery but not to be subjective to inflation risks. The SBV has directed credit institutions to safely and effectively increase credit, direct credit to production and business sectors and priority fields according to the Government's policy; strictly control credit in potentially risky areas; stabilize interest rates to create favorable conditions for people and businesses to access bank credit capital. “In the current context, maintaining the tool of credit limit is appropriate to ensure the operational safety of the banking system, thereby contributing to controlling inflation, supporting economic growth, and stabilizing the macro-economy," said Mr. Dao Minh Tu.
Although 18 commercial banks have recently expanded credit room at 0.7 percent-4 percent, accounting for 80 percent of system credit, the capital shortage is still a hot issue for enterprises. Many enterprises said that the economy had just recovered. However, the capital door from the stock and corporate bond markets has been facing difficulties, and the bank credit room is limited, which will significantly affect the capital support during the peak production and business season at the end of the year. This is expected to greatly influence the resilience of businesses in particular and the economy in general.
Given that credit has increased, but the economy still faces a shortage of capital, economists explained that an ideal capital market is where banks only provide short-term capital, and the corporate bond and stock markets are the places to provide medium and long-term capital for businesses. However, after the scandals of FLC Group and Tan Hoang Minh Group, capital sources from the bond and stock markets have faced difficulties, so all capital demand is concentrated on bank credit capital. In addition, the slow disbursement of public investment capital leads to the situation businesses owe each other. Therefore, over the past time, the credit channel has been the main channel to supply the capital to the economy, so even though it has increased strongly, it still cannot fully meet the capital need.
According to the analysis of VNDirect Securities Company, it is unlikely that commercial banks will receive another increase in credit room from now until the end of 2022. Therefore, credit capital is less likely to flow strongly. Commercial banks will try to manage, allocate credit reasonably, and select customers to lend in the context of increasing capital shortage at the end of the year.
Unblocking the bond market
To mobilize capital for the economy, according to financial experts, the most important issue currently is to open up the capital market. Dr. Tran Du Lich, Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that up to this point, it is necessary to reduce the burden of capital supply, especially medium and long-term capital for the banking system. Developing the corporate bond market is an important long-term capital supply solution for businesses. Therefore, the newly issued Decree No.65/2022 amending and supplementing Decree No.153/2020 on private bond offerings will remove the bottleneck of capital mobilization on the corporate bond channel, unblocking the capital flow from this mobilization channel for economic and social activities.
There are many new regulations of Decree 65/2022 on allowing enterprises to issue corporate bonds to restructure debts. This will reinforce the need to find other capital channels for refinancing businesses, especially real estate businesses that often own many subsidiaries and affiliates to develop projects. One of the new regulations that have a great impact on issuers is that the conditions for the offering are not tightened. However, the regulations on the offering documents and the issuance method are much stricter than before. Therefore, only businesses with capacity and transparent records can raise capital in this market. Economists forecast that the scale of corporate bond issuance will increase sharply again from next year, especially in the second half of 2023.
Real estate credit grew hotter than the national credit, with an increase of more than 14 percent by the end of July 2022. Credit for real estate loans accounted for 20.6 percent of the total outstanding loans of the whole economy. Currently, real estate is assessed as a potentially risky field. Moreover, real estate businesses mainly mobilize medium and long-term capital, so credit institutions are also more cautious in disbursement, especially in the context of tight credit. Real estate credit is mainly medium and long-term loans, so it cannot depend 100 percent on bank capital but must diversify capital mobilization channels, such as corporate bonds, stocks, and foreign investment funds.
* Dr. Tran Du Lich, Member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council: Credit must be poured into the manufacturing sector
The problem is not how much credit is increased, but what is important is that credit must pour into the manufacturing sectors. If the money supply flows into risky areas, then expanding credit will be a slow bomb, leading to many consequences, such as bad debts, soaring interest rates, and exchange rates. In the long term, the SBV must find a more scientific money supply management mechanism to be able to direct capital flows more effective than imposing a credit room as currently.